WUN Scenario Planning Retreat

Imagining a Warmer World: Using Scenario Planning to Create Fair and Equitable Climate Adaptation Law and Policy

September 7–10, 2011

UW Law School, Seattle, and Friday Harbor Labs, San Juan Islands, Washington


Requested Readings

Ogilvy, Jay and Schwartz, Peter, Plotting Your Scenarios, Global Business Network, available here.

Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network, Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development (May 2010), available here.

Suggested Readings


Banhold, Hans and Lindgren, Mats. Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy. Palgrave Macmillan (2003) (especially pages 22-48, 118-145, 147-181, 182-188).

Ilbury, Chantell and Sunter, Clem. The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action. Human & Rousseau and Tafelberg (2001).

Ogilvy, James. Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow.Oxford University Press (2002) (especially pages 105-110, 115-117, 175-187).

Raskin, Paul, et al. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Stockholm Environment Institute (2002).

Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Currency Doubleday (1991) (especially pages 26-28, 29-43, 160-162, 202-205, 211-217, 219-225, 227-239, 241-248).


Scenario Planning and Climate Change

Biggs, Che, et. al., Policy Implications: Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation, Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (June 2011), available here.

Black, Richard, IPCC Aims for Clarity and Relevance in New Report, BBC News (Oct. 15, 2010), available here.

Gilman, Nils, et. al., Impacts of Climate Change: A System Vulnerability Approach to Consider the Potential Impacts to 2050 of a Mid-Upper Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario (Jan. 2007), available here.

Moss, Richard, et. al., Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2008), Geneva, 132 pp, available here.

Schwartz, Peter and Randall, Doug, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (Oct. 2003), available here.

Tschakert, Petra. Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience (flyer), available here.

Wiseman, John, Scenarios for Climate Adaptation: Guidebook for Practitioners, Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (June, 2011), available here.

Scenario Planning Processes

Bartholomew, Keith and Ewing, Reid, Land Use-Transportation Scenario Planning in an Era of Global Climate Change (Nov. 2007), available here.

Beery, Jenny et. al. eds., The Mont Fleur Scenarios, Deeper News, Vol. 7 No. 1, available here.

Biggs, Reinette et. al., Preparing for the Future: Teaching Scenario Planning at the Graduate Level, Ecol Environ 2010; 8 (5): 267–73, available here.

Burt, George, Revisiting and Extending our Understanding of Pierre Wack’s the Gentle Art of Re-Percieving, available (for purchase) here.

Evergreen, U.S. Coast Guard, Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard. Version 2.0 (July 2008), available here. Includes sample scenarios.

See also U.S. Coast Guard Office of Strategic Analysis website.

Federal Highway Administration, A Framework for Considering Climate Change in Transportation and Land Use Scenario Planning: Lessons Learned from an Interagency Pilot Project on Cape Cod (July 2011), available here.

Fisher, James, et. al., Development of a Process to Turn Plausible Scenarios into On-Ground Action, The International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic & Social Sustainability, Vol. 5 No. 2 (2009), available (for purchase) here (bibliography particularly useful).

Illbury, Chantell and Sunter, Clem, Letter to President George W. Bush (spring 2001), available here.

Peterson, Garry et. al., Scenario Planning: A Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World, Conservation Biology, Vol. 17, No. 2, 358–66 (April, 2003), available here.

Schwartz, Peter. Your Future in 5 Easy Steps: Wired Guide to Personal Scenario Planning, Wired, available hereSee also personal scenario planning app, available here.

Water Utility Climate Alliance, Decision Support Planning Methods: Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties into Water Planning (Jan. 2010), available here.

Other Perspectives on Climate Learning

Marshall, George, Fantasy Images of Climate Migration Will Fuel Existing Prejudices, Guardian (Oct. 27, 2010), available here.

Rockman, Marcy, New World with a New Sky: Climatic Variability, Environmental Expectations, and the Historical Period Colonization of Eastern North America, Historical Archaeology, 44 (3): 4–20, available here.

Weller, Richard, Planning by Design: Landscape Architecture Scenarios for a Rapidly Growing City, Journal of Landscape Architecture (Autumn, 2008), available here.

Young, T, et. al., Climate Change and Health in SADC Region: Review of the current state of knowledge, Southern Africa Regional Climate Change Program (Sept. 3, 2010), available as PDF.


Alberti, Marina and Russo, Michal, Scenario Casting As a Tool for Dealing with Uncertainty, UERL, University of Washington (presentation prepared for Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, MA) (Oct. 29-30, 2009), available here.